Spending for the 2026 midterm election cycle is well underway. TV will still claim the largest piece, but political digital advertising is on track for another record year. Of the many digital tactics, projections call for the most growth in connected TV. So what is the outlook, and how have things changed since the last national election that could impact spending?
2024 Political Digital Advertising Projections
AdImpact projects $10.8 billion in total political ad spending this cycle, a 20%-plus increase over the 2022 midterms and the most expensive non-presidential cycle in U.S. history. On the local level, BIA Advisory Services projects $8.4 billion in local political spending across broadcast TV, cable, CTV/OTT, radio, and direct mail. The ability to engage cord-cutters with CTV continues to drive growth: AdImpact projects political CTV spending will reach $2.48 billion in 2026, a 20% increase over 2024 and the only media channel expected to grow versus the last cycle.
For the bigger picture of digital ad dollars, you have to look beyond the presidential race. With no White House on the ballot, congressional and gubernatorial campaigns are absorbing the spending that would have flowed to the top of the ticket. Senate spending is projected to hit $2.8 billion and House spending $2.2 billion, both records. Many candidates and the PACs supporting them have built sophisticated digital operations and significant donor bases to put these ads into the digital world.
Where any national candidate or PACs supporting them spend their dollars will also differ compared to years past, as the states considered battlegrounds have shifted again.
Battleground States Shift; So Will Money
Kinetiq Political Insights identifies Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada as the biggest magnets for 2026 political dollars, together accounting for roughly $3.3 billion, or about a third of total U.S. political spending. Michigan alone is projected to absorb more than $1 billion, exceeding what the entire country saw during the 2006 midterm cycle.
Mid-decade redistricting efforts are also reshaping the map. Several states, including California, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and Utah, are redrawing competitive boundaries, with each newly competitive district adding an estimated $15 to $25 million in potential political ad spending.
If you’re in one of the states likely to be hotly contested, you could see a substantial boost in national spending. So where might these groups put their money tactic-wise?
If you’re in one of the states likely to be hotly contested, you could see a boost in national spending.
So, where might these groups put their money tactic-wise?
The Digital Tactics Likely to See Major Spending
Candidates and PACs will want to use a mix of digital ad tactics to reach audiences. Keep in mind that political is a restricted category in programmatic. This designation means there are considerations around what’s legal by state and what a DSP (demand-side platform) allows. As a result, you’d need access to a DSP that permits these ads, and you’ll need to include all required parameters for the ad.
Social media sites also have restrictions around political advertising. Some have strict guidelines, like Facebook. They prohibit ads discouraging people from voting, those that call into question the legitimacy of elections, and content that prematurely claims victory, for example. Twitter had previously banned political ads, but they’ve relaxed it under new ownership. TikTok, the social media site with the most growth, doesn’t allow political content advertising. Thus, it’s critical to understand what’s allowable when discussing these options.
OTT/CTV, as noted, is a growing digital tactic. BIA estimates that local OTT will reach $2.8 billion in 2024, and a good portion could come from political ads. The ability to accurately target and place ads within quality inventory will be critical to selling these ads.
The digital tactics that candidates and PACs seek also depend on the type of political ad.
Four Key Categories of Political Ads
Ensuring you can capture digital political advertising business requires understanding each ad type.
- Candidate-focused ads: Those running purchase these, and they feature the candidate. It’s that person’s opportunity to encourage people to vote for them. The ideal tactics for these are OTT/CTV, video ads, display ads and geofencing.
- Attack ads: PACs are the most likely groups to purchase these, and the content attacks the person they aren’t supporting. Guidelines for certain DSPs and social platforms will dictate where these ads can run outside of TV, where they air most frequently.
- Fundraising ads: Candidates place these ads most often, and they are a plea to supporters to donate. They can be effective on Facebook and programmatic. These are action-focused ads, so the format needs to include a click to the site to donate.
- Issue-based ads: This category relates to ads that focus on a specific social issue. They don’t typically endorse a candidate. Rather, they illuminate a party’s position. PACs have already been spending money on these ads in 2023 relating to reproductive and voting rights, equality, environmental concerns and health care.
The Outlook Is Bountiful for 2024 Political Digital Advertising
The 2026 midterm cycle is already in full swing at both the local and national levels, with experts projecting a record-breaking year for ad spend. Understanding the opportunities in your market, what’s permissible across platforms, and the most attractive tactics can set your organization up for success in capturing these dollars, along with linear ones for TV and radio.
Get more insights by visiting our political advertising resources library. You can also read our companion pieces on Radio Political Advertising: Why It Creates the Most Reach, Rate Analysis Reporting for Political Advertising Compliance, and 2026 Political Advertising Opportunities for Local Media Companies for the full playbook.
